Also note that if Putin takes much of Europe, he gets bogged down in a series of Iraq-style guerilla wars, and he can no more win those than the Soviet Union was able to beat Afghanistan. In that war, Putin's nukes become of little value to his forces.

Putin could well nuke someone who can't nuke him back, probably with one bomb only trying to force a surrrender. Governments cannot surrender on behalf of guerrillas though, and that of course is the war Ukraine originally prepared for.

A globally destructive nuclear war of the sort we so feared in the 1980's requires two or more opposing sides with a lot of nukes firing probably hundreds of warheads. That's not Russia vs Ukraine (which has none), Russia vs France (has a few and could be the only nuclear NATO power if the US is out), or Israel vs Iran (if Iran has any it will be single digit numbers).

I don't believe that for an instant. Foreign powers getting involved with a US civil war? Nah. They'll sit back with popcorn and wait to waltz in and "help" clean up the mess when it's all over. And who chucks US nukes at that foreign power? Only the Administration can, and they won't for the reasons mentioned earlier.

The Administration would immediately, when the various Guard units begin fisticuffs, declare an emergency and bring in the regulars, escallating an already bad situation and involving civillians in a way reminiscent of Ukraine and a bunch of 3rd-world countries that the USA would, by then, resemble.

Worst case, Russia sees the USA finally disintegrating and throws nukes at Ukraine, in which case Europe responds in kind. WW3 ensues, with the US hamstrung through its own stupidity.

@LukefromDC @rwba

"Europe responds in kind" means France's small "bee sting" nuclear force. Not effective at stopping Russia, gets France incinerated.

The scenario that was threatened if Putin fired one nuke a Kyiv was open conventional intervention where NATO tanks and aircraft fight in Ukraine to push Russian troops out, then stop at the Russian border that Ukraine recognizes. It is believed he was directly threatened with this and his nuclear bluff called. He blinked, possibly fearing the security state around him would not permit him to jeopardize the safety of Russia itself.

One Quibble: Putin is already intervening in the US by supporting Trump and has been back at least to 2016. The fact that Trump has won and Ukraine is going to lose all US support means European NATO intervention here in the form of lobbying or even bribery has failed. Under Trump it would be a waste of resources so I doubt non-US NATO will bother. Thus only one side in Europe is effective in intervening here.

Israel is intervening in US politics via AIPAC as they already have. As a Palestine protester myself I can testify that we've not had any foreign support from Palestine or Lebanon. They are too busy fighting to survive at home to divert resources to us.

As for Iran, their resources are better used to fight the IOF directly in Lebanon than to help people here beg Biden to stop Israel from killing, perhaps with an arms embargo.

Thus only one side in the Middle East is intervening here.