Stay away from hotel windows, Yevgeny.

#Prigozhin #Russia #Rubicon

Russia's pharaonic defense works in #Ukraine are a clear investment in a war of attrition. The hope of offensive victories formally ended with Ukraine's counter-offensive. This means the #Wagner mercenary group had played out its usefulness. It was thereafter merely a threat to #Russia. Prigozhin's complaints of orchestrated losses were probably not unfounded. He must have realised he had not long to live in any case.

#Prigozhin had one card to play and was essentially damned to play it.

#Prigozhin is not going to Moscow. Russian aviation would destroy his column. #Wagner is now reportedly in Rostov, where it is safe from aerial attack. Ground forces would be needed to dislodge them, but redeploying troops from #Ukraine would give the AFU break-through opportunities. #Putin shall be seen as weak if Prigozhin goes unpunished, yet he loses the war if he punishes. A political rout, either way.

Well played, Yevgeny. However, your adversary is still smarter than you.