2/ note that i'm not 100% this correct, but i think it's at least in the ballpark. there may be a step in the carry trade that is more important than the "borrow money in japan" step, but i'm pretty sure "borrow money in japan" is always the first step.

3/ what’s different about this rally as compared to previous bear market rallies is that price moves right now are being driven *entirely* based on the moment to moment proclamations of a mad orange king drunk with power.

trump can easily (and IMHO just did) use this power to xfer massive amounts of retail suckers' money into the hands of Trump donors/friends/insiders etc. w/just a few steps.

[11am] privately inform donors you'll be announcing the cancellation of tariffs at 3pm

[11:01am] donors buy stonks

[2pm] tweet "GREAT TIME TO BUY", transforming donor trades from "insider trading crimes" to "trades based on public information"

[2:01pm] retail MAGA apes & other trump team members (republican congress, officials, etc) "buy the dip"

[3pm] suspend tariffs

[3:01pm] whole world apes in, mkt goes 🚀🌖, insiders' profit massively from their trades.

https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1910033260975165836

#corruption #uspol #Nasdaq #QQQ #SPY #economy #stockmarket #insidertrading #crime #recession

4/ we already know that trump thinks nothing of abusing presidential powers in exchange for cash because he just pardoned a bunch of his donors (e.g. Nikola Motors scammer Trevor Milton) and dropped charges against all his new crypto biz partners (e.g. Justin Sun, a16z).

enriching his supporters w/insider trading opportunities is the same kind of mafia style "repayment"

perhaps trump’s donors were so loud in his ear complaining about all the money they just lost that trump decided to shut them up w/an opportunity to profit on history's largest (not an exaggeration!) insider trading opportunity.

or consider a scenario where #TeslaTakedown has put #ElonMusk financially on the ropes and badly in need of cash. does trump strike you as someone who wouldn't help a fellow grifter out if doing so only cost him some well timed tweets & market chaos?

#trump #uspol #stockmarket #Nasdaq #InsiderTrading #corruption #eupol #trevormilton #Pardon #Pardons #QQQ #economy #crime #recession

5/ I'll also mention that while insider trading of stocks by govt officials is kind of hard to hide, insider trading of crypto (which also popped 10% on trump's announcement) is easily hidden.

Govt officials are supposed to publicly disclose all stock trades... but even if they don't (or if they lie) their actual trades have created a paper trail at the IRS etc. that could be subpoenaed.

But members of the govt do NOT have to report crypto trades. if Trump insiders made fortunes going 50x long bitcoin on Chinese offshore exchanges 10 minutes before trump's big reveal and then decide not to "voluntarily" report those trades the public will never be able to find out about them. Chinese crypto exchanges don't answer american subpoenas.