Stocks Waver as Politics Offset China-Led Boost: Markets Wrap https://www.byteseu.com/544097/ #Bloomberg #CentralEconomicWorkConference #China #EuropeanCentralBank #InterestRates #PoliticalUpheaval #Politics #PresidentYoonSukYeol #SouthKorea #StoxxEurope600 #SwissNationalBank

In the FT, DeAnne Julius (one time member of the BoE/MPC) is warning that a combination of lower output, higher unemployment & rising input prices (all of which she observes in the UK) could lead to the return of 'stagflation'.... and as such is warning the MPC that it should not be considering lowering interest rates further (although its not clear it was).

In other words; the sado-monetarists now conveniently have another reason to keep your mortgage rates high(er).

#inflation #InterestRates

So UK inflation is up again for October, now at 2.3% annualised, back above the BoE./MPC target, giving more ammunition to the interest rate 'hawks' to keep the rates high... the upward trend seems to be driven by energy price rises, but for the BoE/MPC you can bet the focus will be on public sector wage rises.... and the budget related NI rise coming.

So again, if you were hoping your mortgage payment might go down any time soon, think again

#interestrates #inflation #mortgage
h/t FT

Today Andrew Bailey (BoE) told the House of Commons Treasury select committee:

“A gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint will help us to observe how this plays out, along with other risks to the inflation outlook”!

And in English: the sado-monetarists are not going to be reducing interest rates, or your mortgage payments any time soon;

As predicted, something has come up (this time the budget) to make them pause after one small interest rate reduction!

#InterestRates
h/t FT

With inflation likely rising above the 2% target when data is published on Wednesday & likelihood the BoE/MPC's more recent focus on services sector inflation will see that remaining nearer 5% on an annualised basis, I think we can safely say the sado-monetarists will feel they have plenty of reasons not reduce interest rates this month or next.

If you were hoping for mortgage rate relief before the end of the year, you'll be disappointed.... & will be in 2025 too

#InterestRates #inflation

Soooo.... how likely is it that Andrew Bailey will report that the sado-monetarists of the BoE/MPC, in light of the shift in economic prospects entailed by a Trump win, which many economists already think will be inflationary, argue that as such now is not the time to cut rates 'further' as an inflationary wave may be heading our way across the Atlantic....

I may be wrong, but it won't surprise me if this is how tomorrow plays out, interest rate wise!

#interestrates #inflation

Will BoE/MPC vote for an interest rate cut (the second of the year) at its meeting on Thursday?

Traders (according to the FT) are putting a cut at a probability of 90%, however Andrew Bailey has been out & about recently claiming the bank will be 'cautious' & awaits further evidence of inflationary pressures easing.

My opinion of the sado-monetarists has been exercised here repeatedly so you'll be unsurprised I'm sceptical a cut willl be made, but would welcome it if it was!

#InterestRates