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Beiträge, die mit ARCTIC getaggt sind


In the next few days, I will be sharing some of our work that I am most proud of from my time at NOAA/GFDL.

But I would also like a little normalcy today on my feed, so here's my go-to sea ice data viz update. Though, to be clear, the info certainly isn't normal...

#Arctic sea ice extent still remains the *lowest* on record for the date (JAXA). Not good.
Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between January and April by looking at the decadal average line positions.


Last month observed widespread warmer than average sea surface temperatures surrounding the #Arctic Ocean ice edge. Some of the largest anomalies were along the coast in the southeastern Barents Sea.

Data: NOAA OISSTv2.1 (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/optimum-interpolation-sst) 🌊
Polar stereographic map showing sea surface temperature anomalies in January 2025 relative to 1982 to 2010. Most areas are warmer than average. Sea-ice cover is also shown if sea-ice concentration is at least 15% per each grid point. Red is shown for warmer sea surface temperatures, and blue is shown for colder sea surface temperatures. Data is from OISSTv2.1.


In the big picture, Greenland and Canada ownership is not for US keeping. They are prized natural resource land masses that, in the hands of Russia, give Putin control of the entire arctic polar region and beyond, expanding Russian territory in a bold new direction. We don't need them. Russia wants them. And this new US government is very interested in pleasing Russia.

#Russia #Trussia #USA #Greenland #Canada #Arctic #geopolitics #expansion #dominion #world
The nations which comprise the Arctic region. circa 2014.
Source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Political_Map_of_the_Arctic.pdf
This map of the Arctic was created by State Department geographers as part of the U.S. Chairmanship of the Arctic Council. Author: U.S. State Department
Licensing Public domain. This work is in the public domain in the United States because it is a work prepared by an officer or employee of the United States Government as part of that person’s official duties under the terms of Title 17, Chapter 1, Section 105 of the US Code.


So the 33 days so far this winter with Arctic Sea ice extent at the lowest since 1978-79 got me wondering about when lowest daily occurred through the year. Answer: mostly 2016-2020 except 2012 mid-August to early October and 2010 for a short stretch in late June and early July. Data courtesy NSIDC. #Arctic #SeaIce @Climatologist49 @ZLabe
Plot of the lowest daily sea ice extent in the Arctic 1978-79 to 2024-25, color coded by the year of occurrence.


Arctic-wide sea ice extent this season has been at record low levels 33 days (and counting) since December 1. Data from NSIDC. #Arctic #Seaice
Time series plot of the 2024-25 sea ice extent November 1 to February 11 against the 1978-70 to 2023-24 minimum extent with the days when the 2024-25 season is the lowest highlighted.


Most of the #Arctic Ocean is covered with sea ice in February. However, the edges are observing warming at the ocean surface. Warming trends are particularly large in the North Atlantic and Davis Strait/Labrador Sea.

Data from NOAA OISSTv2.1. For more info: https://doi.org/10.25923/9z96-aq19
Polar stereographic map of sea surface temperature trends in the Arctic for each February from 1982 to 2024. There is a long-term warming at the edges of the Arctic Ocean, especially in the North Atlantic.


Temperatures remain well above average across the #Arctic, though these anomalies will begin to wane over the next few days. This is also coinciding with record low sea ice conditions for this time of year.

Sea ice data from: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index. Map from https://climatereanalyzer.org/
Graphic showing a line graph time series of daily Arctic sea ice extent in for each year from 1979 to 2024. This year is shown in red, and the previous record in 2018 is shown in yellow. Purple to white color shading is used for each other year's line. There is a long-term decreasing trend for every day of the year.
Map of 2-m air temperature anomalies from the 6z GFS forecast on 7 February 2025 showing the Northern Hemisphere. Temperature are well above average over the Arctic, but colder around the nearby continental land regions.


Saturday ice update - #Arctic sea ice extent is currently the *lowest* on record (JAXA data)

• about 640,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 1,280,000 km² below the 2000s mean
• about 1,850,000 km² below the 1990s mean
• about 2,290,000 km² below the 1980s mean

Plots: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration/
Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between January and April by looking at the decadal average line positions.


And to continue the feel-better-in-grey-winter vibe, summer from the arctic: this is the extroardinary #Lofoten #Norway at midsummer last year. The wildflowers were wild, weather: blue and warm (worryingly: pavement coffee in Tromsø a day or two later). And the midnight sun - exquisite, if a bit weird.

Navigation into Trollfjorden, N of Svolvaer, is unbelievable, given how tight it is - to navigate then turn (on the spot) to return. Impressive stuff from the skipper.

#Arctic #bloomscrolling
Wildflowers and ferns over the lake at Bøstad, #Lofoten, with clear blue skies reflected in the water in the distance
A panoramic landscape view in Lofoten, with pointed sharp mountains in the distance, remains of snow flecks just visible, behind two blue lakes and the green of midsummer
A very narrow gorge seen from the deck of a ship, with blue midnight sun sky, over steel water, and sheer rocky cliffs to port and starboard.  Snowy peaked mountains ahead.
Artic flowers, white with a red and black centre, four petals and a lime green waxy foliage


Sorry - a not so very good Sunday ice update. #Arctic sea ice extent is easily the *lowest* on record to kick off a new year (JAXA data)... 🌊

• about 610,000 km² below the 2010s mean
• about 2,160,000 km² below the 1980s mean

Additional long-term sea ice graphs: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-figures/
Line graph time series of 2025's daily Arctic sea ice extent compared to decadal averages from the 1980s to the 2010s. The decadal averages are shown with different colored lines with purple for the 1980s, blue for the 1990s, green for the 2000s, and white for the 2010s. Thin white lines are also shown for each year from 2000 to 2024. 2025 is shown with a thick gold line. There is a long-term decreasing trend in ice extent for every day of the year shown on this graph between January and April by looking at the decadal average line positions.


There is now less #SeaIce in the #Arctic than we ever recorded in mid December.

And we measure since the 1970s.

#climateChange @osi_saf @CopernicusECMWF
Curves of sea-ice area (in millions sq km) over time. The different colours are for the different years after 1978. The black curve is for 2024.


#Arctic #tundra is now emitting more #carbon than it absorbs, US agency says

Drastic shift driven by frequent #wildfires, pushing surface air #temperatures to second-warmest on record since 1900

by Dharna Noor, Tue 10 December

"The Arctic tundra is undergoing a dramatic transformation, driven by frequent wildfires that are turning it into a net source of carbon dioxide emissions after millennia of acting as a carbon sink, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (#Noaa) said on Tuesday.

"This drastic shift is detailed in Noaa’s 2024 Arctic Report Card, which revealed that annual surface air temperatures in the Arctic this year were the second-warmest on record since 1900.

“'Our observations now show that the Arctic tundra, which is experiencing warming and increased wildfire, is now emitting more carbon than it stores, which will worsen climate change impacts,' said Rick Spinrad, a Noaa administrator.

"The report, led by scientists from the Woodwell Climate Research Center in Falmouth, Massachusetts, found that the Arctic is warming faster than the global average for the 11th year in a row.

"Currently, it is warming at up to four times the global rate, the authors found.

"Climate warming has dual effects on the Arctic. While it stimulates plant productivity and growth, which remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, it also leads to increased surface air temperatures that cause permafrost to thaw.

"When permafrost thaws, carbon trapped in the frozen soil is decomposed by microbes and released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and methane, two potent greenhouse gases.

"'We need accurate, holistic and comprehensive knowledge of how climate changes will affect the amount of carbon the Arctic is taking up and storing, and how much it’s releasing back into the atmosphere, in order to effectively address this crisis,' said Dr Sue Natali, a scientist at the Woodwell Center who contributed to the research. 'This report represents a critical step toward quantifying these emissions at scale.'

"Human-caused climate change is also intensifying high-latitude wildfires, which have increased in burned area, intensity and associated carbon emissions.

"Wildfires not only combust vegetation and soil organic matter, releasing carbon into the atmosphere, but they also strip away insulating soil layers, accelerating long-term permafrost thaw and its associated carbon emissions.

"'In recent years, we’ve seen how increasing fire activity from climate change threatens both communities and the carbon stored in permafrost, but now we’re beginning to be able to measure the cumulative impact to the atmosphere, and it’s significant,' said Dr Brendan Rogers, Woodwell Climate scientist and report contributor."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/dec/10/arctic-tundra-carbon-shift?utm_source=firefox-newtab-en-us

#GlobalWarming #GlobalBurning #2024ArcticReportCard #ArcticWarming #Tundra #PermafrostThaw #GreenhouseGases #Methane #Microbes #ClimateCrisis #ClimateChange


Average November 2024 #Arctic sea ice extent was the 3rd lowest on record...

This was 1,590,000 km² below the 1981-2010 average. November ice extent is decreasing at about 4.76% per decade.

Data: https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index
Blue line graph time series of Arctic sea ice extent for every November from 1979 to 2024. A red dashed line is also annotated to compare 2024's levels. There is a long-term decreasing trend and large interannual variability.


#Permafrost Thaw May Cause #Arctic River Erosion to Speed Up

October 09, 2024

"Permafrost, the thick layer of perennially frozen ground that covers much of the Arctic, slows down the migration of Arctic rivers, according to a new Caltech study. River migration is a common process in which a river's path meanders over time due to erosion of the riverbanks. This rerouting, which can also occur in #SuddenFloods, poses a threat for many communities that live along and depend on rivers. The findings also have implications for how the Arctic region will be impacted by a warming climate as permafrost thaws over time.

"The research was conducted in the Caltech laboratory of Michael Lamb, professor of geology, and is described in a paper appearing in the journal Nature on October 9.

"Led by graduate student Emily Geyman, the study focused on the #KoyukukRiver, a large tributary of the #YukonRiver that winds for hundreds of miles through interior Alaska. There was debate within the scientific community about whether the frozen soil along the riverbanks serves to fortify the banks against erosion or to promote it.

"'Large rivers like the Yukon or the Amazon can move tens to hundreds of feet per year,' Geyman says. "Arctic rivers in particular differ from temperate rivers because they need to thaw the material of their banks before they can pick that material up and move it.'

"Due to #ClimateChange, permafrost is slowly thawing over decades. But a river can experience drastic natural changes within a single year, with flow conditions changing from very cold and fast in early spring to warm and slow a few months later. Geyman and her collaborators leveraged these major changes that take place within a single season to gain a glimpse into how the rivers will behave in response to climate change decades or centuries into the future.

"In spring, the Koyukuk River swells in volume from snowmelt, flowing with fast, cold water. For more temperate rivers, a fast flow means more erosion. But in the Arctic, the temperature of the water matters—cold water is unable to thaw the frozen banks in order to migrate.

"In the new study, Geyman and her collaborators used satellite imagery of the Koyukuk over the past several years and developed a technique to decode high-resolution changes from the images. The team hypothesized that if permafrost was slowing the river's migration, they should only see migration later in the summer when the river water has warmed up. Their hypothesis matched with the satellite data, suggesting that permafrost does, in fact, slow down river migration.

"Next, the team compared sections of the river that flow through permafrost with those that do not. The Koyukuk is special because it traverses a patchwork of both permafrost and unfrozen ground. The team traveled to the Arctic to map the erosion on various bends of the river and found that sections without permafrost migrated twice as fast as analogous riverbends through permafrost terrain.

"The research is part of a larger effort to understand the dynamics of rivers and how they transport carbon, nutrients, and other materials trapped in the soil.

"'River migration has implications for local communities and infrastructure, and also for the Arctic environment,' Lamb says. 'About 1,500 gigatons of #carbon are stored in the frozen permafrost—about twice as much carbon as in the atmosphere, for comparison. There is also #mercury frozen in the soil that could be liberated into rivers as permafrost thaws. We are, ultimately, trying to understand what happens to these elements in the context of river erosion.'

"The work was a collaboration with local Alaska #Native communities, in particular from the town of #Huslia."

Read more:
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/permafrost-thaw-may-cause-arctic-river-erosion-to-speed-up

#GlobalWarming #PermafrostMelt #MercuryPoisoning #CarbonSinks #WaterIsLife #ClimateChange #Arctic #Alaska


#Greenland is getting greener. That could have huge consequences for the world

By Angela Dewan, CNN
Published February 13, 2024

"Warmer air temperatures have driven #IceLoss, which has in turn raised land temperatures. That has caused the melting of #permafrost, a frozen layer just beneath the Earth’s surface and found in much of the #Arctic, and that melt releases planet-warming #CarbonDioxide and #methane, contributing to more #GlobalWarming. #PermafrostMelt is also causing #LandInstability, which could impact infrastructure and buildings.

"'We have seen signs that the loss of ice is triggering other reactions which will result in further loss of ice and further ‘greening’ of Greenland, where shrinking ice exposes bare rock that is then colonized by tundra and eventually shrub,' one of the report’s authors, Jonathan Carrivick, said in a press release. 'At the same time, water released from the melting ice is moving sediment and silt, and that eventually forms wetlands and fenlands.'

"The loss of ice is creating what’s known as a #FeedbackLoop. Snow and ice typically reflect the sun’s energy back into space, preventing excessive heating in parts of the Earth. But as ice disappears, those areas absorb more solar energy, raising land surface temperatures, which can cause further melt and other negative impacts.

"#IceMelt also increases the amount of water in lakes, where water absorbs more heat than snow, which increases land surface temperatures.

"Greenland has been warming at twice the global mean rate since the 1970s, and the study’s authors warn that more extreme temperatures in the future are likely.

"Greenland is the world’s biggest island and is mostly covered by ice and #glaciers. Around 57,000 people live in the country, which is an autonomous country within the Kingdom of Denmark. Much of the population is #indigenous and many people there rely on natural #ecosystems for their survival.

"Michael Grimes, the report’s lead author, said that the flow of sediments and nutrients into coastal waters was particularly problematic for #IndigenousCommunities that rely on fishing, as well as for hunters on other parts of the island.

"'These changes are critical, particularly for the indigenous populations whose traditional subsistence hunting practices rely on the stability of these delicate #ecosystems,' he said.

"'Moreover, the loss of ice mass in Greenland is a substantial contributor to #GlobalSeaLevelRise, a trend that poses significant challenges both now and in the future.'"

https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/climate/greenland-ice-loss-vegetation-climate-intl/index.html


[Short film] Diiyeghan naii Taii Tr’eedaa
(We Will Walk the Trail of our Ancestors)

Princess Daazhraii Johnson with Alisha Carlson (Gwich'in)

"A grandfather teaches his granddaughter, a young Gwich'in mother named Alisha, how reciprocity is embedded in all aspects of life. The northern lights warm the caribou; the caribou helps feed and sustain the community; the community honors the connections. Each element in nature is purposeful and related. In turn, these connections bring new meaning to Alisha and her wishes for her children and for all living beings."

Watch:
https://www.reciprocity.org/films/diiyeghan-naii-taii-treedaa

#DCEFF #IndigenousStorytellers #IndigenousFilms #ReciprocityProject #Reciprocity #IndigenousFilmMakers #IndigenousWisdom #Gwichin #Arctic #TananChatoh


Reconstructing October #Arctic sea ice extent since the year 1850...

You can read more about this data set at https://carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850
Line graph time series of October Arctic sea ice extent for every year from 1850 through 2024. Two datasets are compared in this time series. The Walsh et al. 2019 reconstruction is shown with a solid blue line. The NSIDC Sea Ice Index v3 is shown with a dashed red line only for the satellite era. There is large interannual variability and a long-term decreasing trend over the last few decades.


Trends in November #Arctic sea ice thickness over the last four decades. Unsurprisingly, ice is thinning across the entire Arctic Ocean.

Simulated data from PIOMAS. For more information: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0436.1
Polar stereographic map showing Arctic sea ice thickness trends in November over the 1979 to 2023 period. All areas are observing thinning ice.


#Arctic sea ice volume was 54% below the average in this data set for October 2024. The animation shows changes in both sea ice volume (bar) and sea ice thickness (map) in October

+ Graphic available: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/
+ Data from: https://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/data/


The entire #Arctic Ocean witnessed ice thinner than the 1981-2010 average during October 2024. In fact, for some areas (like north of Greenland), this was several meters less than in decades prior. It's most certainly a new Arctic.

Graphic: https://zacklabe.com/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness/. Data from PIOMAS.
Two polar stereographic maps side-by-side showing October 2024 Arctic sea ice thickness and its anomalies, which are relative to 1981 to 2010. Data is from PIOMAS.


November has observed some of the largest trends in the #Arctic, especially over areas with decreasing sea ice cover. Arctic amplification is largest in the boreal fall.

If you see red, that means it's warming...

Data: @CopernicusECMWF ERA5. More info: https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0101.1
Polar stereographic map showing 2-m air temperature anomaly trends for Novembers from 1979 to 2023. All areas are warming in the Arctic.


The light this morning was sublime. #Nunavut #Arctic
The sunrise down Adams Sound this morning. Ice has begun to form, and glows orange and grey in the morning light. Mountains are either painted orange with sunlight or are in shadow. The edges of clouds are or are in shadow. Clouds above the light are dark grey, looming above the light. A Glaucous Gull flies through.